Noodle the numbers
Evidence is on the table
No secret ingredient: prediction-market prices, trend regimes, seasonal history, and breaking crypto news, each weighed in the open.
Find a market
Published paper budget unavailable
The dashboard has not received a verified paper-budget projection. No zero balance is being inferred.
Positive-edge signals
Base signal: 5–100pp net edge and ≥50% quality. Confirmation waits 90s, requires 2 snapshots over 15s, and stops in the final 30s. Venue, portfolio, funding, risk, and reconciliation checks follow before any live order.
No positive-edge buy right now
No current market clears every base buy-policy gate: selected-side probability, estimate quality, actionable price, and fee-aware net edge.
Debug edge calculations for all 7 markets
basis -0.064% · σ 0.101% · z -0.63 → 26.4%
σ vs market: 0.96× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 31.0% · venues differ 5pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 11.8 = 64.2, 25, 86) = 64.2%
50% threshold · +14.2pp
Polymarket
DOWN 72%
U 28 · D 72
asks U 21¢ · D 80¢
Kalshi ≈
DOWN 77%
U 24 · D 77
asks U 24¢ · D 77¢
No enabled actionable binary ask · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
basis -0.037% · σ 0.138% · z -0.27 → 39.4%
σ vs market: 2.52× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 36.4% · venues differ 10pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 13.3 = 62.7, 25, 86) = 62.7%
50% threshold · +12.7pp
Polymarket
DOWN 78%
U 23 · D 78
asks U 35¢ · D 66¢
Kalshi ≈
DOWN 68%
U 33 · D 68
asks U 33¢ · D 68¢
Poly DOWN 66.0¢ + fee 0.7¢ → edge -11.0pp · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
basis -0.106% · σ 0.189% · z -0.56 → 28.7%
σ vs market: 1.02× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 31.5% · venues differ 9pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 13.3 = 62.7, 25, 86) = 62.7%
50% threshold · +12.7pp
Polymarket
DOWN 70%
U 31 · D 70
asks U 24¢ · D 77¢
Kalshi ≈
DOWN 78%
U 22 · D 78
asks U 23¢ · D 79¢
No enabled actionable binary ask · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
basis -0.115% · σ 0.145% · z -0.79 → 21.3%
σ vs market: 0.67× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 28.9% · venues differ 3pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 12.0 = 64.0, 25, 86) = 64.0%
50% threshold · +14.0pp
Polymarket
DOWN 70%
U 31 · D 70
asks U 24¢ · D 77¢
Kalshi ≈
DOWN 73%
U 28 · D 73
asks U 28¢ · D 73¢
Kalshi DOWN 73.0¢ + fee 1.4¢ → edge -8.9pp · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
basis -0.092% · σ 0.144% · z -0.64 → 26.1%
σ vs market: 0.23× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 35.3% · venues differ 37pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 12.6 = 63.4, 25, 86) = 63.4%
50% threshold · +13.4pp
Polymarket
UP 54%
U 54 · D 47
asks U 21¢ · D 82¢
Kalshi ≈
DOWN 84%
U 17 · D 84
asks U 17¢ · D 84¢
No enabled actionable binary ask · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
basis -0.102% · σ 0.102% · z -1.00 → 15.9%
σ vs market: 0.18× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 25.6% · venues differ 23pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 12.6 = 63.4, 25, 86) = 63.4%
50% threshold · +13.4pp
Polymarket
DOWN 52%
U 49 · D 52
asks U 28¢ · D 74¢
Kalshi ≈
DOWN 75%
U 26 · D 75
asks U 26¢ · D 75¢
Poly DOWN 74.0¢ + fee 0.7¢ → edge -2.1pp · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
basis -0.140% · σ 0.222% · z -0.63 → 26.4%
σ vs market: 0.32× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 33.2% · venues differ 30pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 13.3 = 62.7, 25, 86) = 62.7%
50% threshold · +12.7pp
Polymarket
DOWN 51%
U 50 · D 51
asks U 27¢ · D 76¢
Kalshi ≈
DOWN 81%
U 20 · D 81
asks U 20¢ · D 81¢
No enabled actionable binary ask · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
Confidence is clamped to 25–86%. “Live” is a four-point source-availability bonus to confidence, not the prediction-market factor’s forecast weight. Venue probabilities are shown for research, while the binary buy gate uses the actionable ask for the selected UP/YES or DOWN/NO side on venues enabled in Budget. Disabled venues are dimmed and cannot qualify the calculation. The tradeable P(UP), and therefore P(DOWN)=1−P(UP), is computed without venue input because prices are execution costs rather than forecast features. Qualification requires expected value after venue fees plus at least 55% independent probability for the selected side. Entries remain restricted to the 10–75¢ range, and a claimed edge of 100pp or more is refused as model failure rather than opportunity. This table applies the strict defaults for withheld sides and assets; the Policy dialog reports what each track is actually running. Selling remains reduce-only and is never treated as an implicit opposite-side entry.
Published paper track unavailable
No verified paper-performance projection is available. No empty track record is being inferred.
Current 15-minute markets
BTC
BitcoinModel says
62% DOWN
closes in
--:--
ETH
EthereumModel says
56% DOWN
closes in
--:--
SOL
SolanaModel says
62% DOWN
closes in
--:--
XRP
XRPModel says
66% DOWN
closes in
--:--
DOGE
DogecoinModel says
63% DOWN
closes in
--:--
BNB
BNBModel says
73% DOWN
closes in
--:--
HYPE
HyperliquidModel says
65% DOWN
closes in
--:--
Kalshi one-hour thresholds
ABOVE and BELOW are separate YES contracts with distinct strikes—not complementary sides. Model minus ask is a research difference, not a qualified edge or trade signal.
Transparent by default
Every probability-point contribution is available in the thesis view.
No invented history
Unavailable seasonal evidence stays neutral while the local baseline grows.
Trading is isolated
Future venue actions require preview, risk checks, and explicit confirmation.