Noodle the numbers
Evidence is on the table
No secret ingredient: prediction-market prices, trend regimes, seasonal history, and breaking crypto news, each weighed in the open.
Find a market
Published paper budget unavailable
The dashboard has not received a verified paper-budget projection. No zero balance is being inferred.
Positive-edge signals
Base signal: 5–100pp net edge and ≥50% quality. Confirmation waits 90s, requires 2 snapshots over 15s, and stops in the final 30s. Venue, portfolio, funding, risk, and reconciliation checks follow before any live order.
ETHMoney Noodle
DOWN 83%
U 17 · D 83
Polymarket
UP 73%
U 73 · D 28
asks U 1¢ · D —
Kalshi ≈
UP 67%
U 67 · D 33
asks U 68¢ · D 34¢
Kalshi DOWN 34.0¢ + 1.6¢ fee · expected value +47.0pp
HYPEMoney Noodle
DOWN 57%
U 43 · D 57
Polymarket
UP 98%
U 98 · D 3
asks U 90¢ · D 95¢
Kalshi ≈
UP 87%
U 87 · D 13
asks U 89¢ · D 15¢
Kalshi DOWN 15.0¢ + 0.9¢ fee · expected value +40.8pp
BNBMoney Noodle
DOWN 83%
U 17 · D 83
Polymarket
UP 70%
U 70 · D 31
asks U 67¢ · D 99¢
Kalshi ≈
UP 56%
U 56 · D 44
asks U 59¢ · D 47¢
Kalshi DOWN 47.0¢ + 1.7¢ fee · expected value +33.8pp
BTCMoney Noodle
DOWN 83%
U 17 · D 83
Polymarket
DOWN 78%
U 23 · D 78
asks U 1¢ · D —
Kalshi ≈
UP 51%
U 51 · D 50
asks U 51¢ · D 50¢
Kalshi DOWN 50.0¢ + 1.8¢ fee · expected value +31.2pp
Debug edge calculations for all 7 markets
basis -0.037% · σ 0.012% · z -3.19 → 5.0%
σ vs market: not comparable
with venue blend 21.6% · venues differ 5pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 4.5 = 71.5, 25, 86) = 71.5%
50% threshold · +21.5pp
Polymarket
UP 73%
U 73 · D 28
asks U 1¢ · D —
Kalshi ≈
UP 67%
U 67 · D 33
asks U 68¢ · D 34¢
Kalshi DOWN 34.0¢ + fee 1.6¢ → edge +47.0pp · passes
33.65
net edge × quality
basis -0.012% · σ 0.026% · z -0.46 → 32.1%
σ vs market: not comparable
with venue blend 64.7% · venues differ 10pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 4.5 = 71.5, 25, 86) = 71.5%
50% threshold · +21.5pp
Polymarket
UP 98%
U 98 · D 3
asks U 90¢ · D 95¢
Kalshi ≈
UP 87%
U 87 · D 13
asks U 89¢ · D 15¢
Kalshi DOWN 15.0¢ + fee 0.9¢ → edge +40.8pp · passes
29.20
net edge × quality
basis -0.022% · σ 0.012% · z -1.76 → 5.0%
σ vs market: not comparable
with venue blend 20.6% · venues differ 13pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 4.4 = 71.6, 25, 86) = 71.6%
50% threshold · +21.6pp
Polymarket
UP 70%
U 70 · D 31
asks U 67¢ · D 99¢
Kalshi ≈
UP 56%
U 56 · D 44
asks U 59¢ · D 47¢
Kalshi DOWN 47.0¢ + fee 1.7¢ → edge +33.8pp · passes
24.17
net edge × quality
basis -0.042% · σ 0.008% · z -5.02 → 5.0%
σ vs market: 0.11× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 13.7% · venues differ 28pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 3.6 = 72.4, 25, 86) = 72.4%
50% threshold · +22.4pp
Polymarket
DOWN 78%
U 23 · D 78
asks U 1¢ · D —
Kalshi ≈
UP 51%
U 51 · D 50
asks U 51¢ · D 50¢
Kalshi DOWN 50.0¢ + fee 1.8¢ → edge +31.2pp · passes
22.58
net edge × quality
basis +0.049% · σ 0.015% · z +3.34 → 95.0%
σ vs market: 0.77× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 96.5% · venues differ 0pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 4.5 = 71.5, 25, 86) = 71.5%
50% threshold · +21.5pp
Polymarket
UP 100%
U 100 · D 1
asks U — · D 1¢
Kalshi ≈
UP 100%
U 100 · D 0
asks U 100¢ · D 1¢
No enabled actionable binary ask · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
basis -0.059% · σ 0.013% · z -4.39 → 5.0%
σ vs market: not comparable
with venue blend 21.9% · venues differ 78pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 4.5 = 71.5, 25, 86) = 71.5%
50% threshold · +21.5pp
Polymarket
UP 88%
U 88 · D 13
asks U 1¢ · D —
Kalshi ≈
DOWN 91%
U 9 · D 91
asks U 10¢ · D 91¢
No enabled actionable binary ask · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
basis -0.091% · σ 0.012% · z -7.43 → 5.0%
σ vs market: 0.25× — edge comes only from this
with venue blend 6.9% · venues differ 4pp
clamp(30.0 + 24.0 + 22.0 − 4.5 = 71.5, 25, 86) = 71.5%
50% threshold · +21.5pp
Polymarket
DOWN 96%
U 4 · D 96
asks U 1¢ · D —
Kalshi ≈
DOWN 100%
U 1 · D 100
asks U 1¢ · D 100¢
No enabled actionable binary ask · blocked
0.00
net edge × quality
Confidence is clamped to 25–86%. “Live” is a four-point source-availability bonus to confidence, not the prediction-market factor’s forecast weight. Venue probabilities are shown for research, while the binary buy gate uses the actionable ask for the selected UP/YES or DOWN/NO side on venues enabled in Budget. Disabled venues are dimmed and cannot qualify the calculation. The tradeable P(UP), and therefore P(DOWN)=1−P(UP), is computed without venue input because prices are execution costs rather than forecast features. Qualification requires expected value after venue fees plus at least 55% independent probability for the selected side. Entries remain restricted to the 10–75¢ range, and a claimed edge of 100pp or more is refused as model failure rather than opportunity. This table applies the strict defaults for withheld sides and assets; the Policy dialog reports what each track is actually running. Selling remains reduce-only and is never treated as an implicit opposite-side entry.
Published paper track unavailable
No verified paper-performance projection is available. No empty track record is being inferred.
Current 15-minute markets
ETH
EthereumModel says
83% DOWN
closes in
--:--
HYPE
HyperliquidModel says
57% DOWN
closes in
--:--
BNB
BNBModel says
83% DOWN
closes in
--:--
BTC
BitcoinModel says
83% DOWN
closes in
--:--
SOL
SolanaModel says
85% UP
closes in
--:--
XRP
XRPModel says
82% DOWN
closes in
--:--
DOGE
DogecoinModel says
83% DOWN
closes in
--:--
Kalshi one-hour thresholds
ABOVE and BELOW are separate YES contracts with distinct strikes—not complementary sides. Model minus ask is a research difference, not a qualified edge or trade signal.
Transparent by default
Every probability-point contribution is available in the thesis view.
No invented history
Unavailable seasonal evidence stays neutral while the local baseline grows.
Trading is isolated
Future venue actions require preview, risk checks, and explicit confirmation.